Shocked by the results of the US Election? Here's a few reasons why Donald Trump managed to do it
If you woke up this morning in shock at the US election results, here are some of the reasons why Trump clinched it.
If we’ve learned one thing from Brexit…
It’s that the polls aren’t always accurate. Right before voting began in the EU Referendum on 23rd June, an online Populus poll gave Remain a 10-point lead of 55% to 45%. We all know what happened next.
The ‘silent voter’ appears to have come out for Trump
After the Brexit result, YouGov research director Anthony Wells said the pollsters’ error was partly down to graduates being over-represented in polls as non-university educated voters are harder to reach. The bedrock of Trump’s voters? Non-university educated white men.
African-American voter turnout was lower than under Obama
Early voter research from the election showed the number of African-American voters – who typically back a Democratic candidate – was lower than in previous US elections, particularly in the states of North Carolina, Florida and Georgia. The increased apathy in America’s black population is partly blamed on a terrible few years for race relations in the USA, with #BlackLivesMatter protests erupting over police shootings. Speaking at Fayetteville State University in North Carolina on Friday, one of the areas where African-American voter turnout appears to have dipped, Barack Obama told the crowd, ‘I need you to go out and just nag the heck out of folks who aren’t voting. I need you to tell them that Barack is personally asking them.’ However, of the African-Americans who did vote, 88% of them did so for Clinton.
Clinton’s popularity with Latinos might have been overestimated
It was hoped by the Clinton camp that the Latino vote would help push Hillary to victory. Though a record number of America’s Hispanic population did come out to vote in the election and 65% of them backed Clinton, 35% of them – a sizeable chunk – also voted for Trump.
Many Millennials had an issue with Clinton
Despite support from celebrities including Katy Perry and Natalie Portman, early voter research showed fewer Americans age 18 to 29 cast a vote in the election compared with 2012. According to The Guardian, this could be indicative of the ‘Bernie or Bust’ sentiment among young liberals who refused to vote for either candidate, a movement that damaged Clinton far more than Trump. Millennials disillusioned with Hillary also potentially weakened her by opting for an independent candidate. Last week Susan Sarandon, previously a high-profile supporter of Bernie Sanders, wrote an open letter endorsing Green Party Candidate Jill Stein. ‘Fear of Donald Trump is not enough for me to support Clinton, with her record of corruption’, she wrote, ‘now that Trump is self-destructing, I feel even those in swing states have the opportunity to vote [with] their conscience.’
Support for independents such as Gary Johnson helped tip the balance
Votes for Libertarian Party candidates such as Gary Johnson helped Clinton lose the election. Last night Johnson, who was once the Republican Governor of New Mexico but defected to the Libertarian Party in 2012, won 3.1 per cent of votes in the key swing state of Florida, helping open up a gap between Clinton and Trump. When asked by Yahoo Global News anchor Katie Couric whether he was concerned that his own campaign could help Trump win, Johnson replied ‘I’ll sleep soundly if Trump wins.’