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New study declares HIV could be eradicated

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Marie Claire News: AIDS

The virus that leads to AIDS could, in theory, be wiped out within a decade, if all populations living in countries at high risk are tested regularly and treated, so says a new study.

The research, based on a new mathematical model, has been published in medical journal The Lancet and poses a fascinating answer to end the AIDS epidemic.

'It's quite a startling result,' said Charlie Gilks, an AIDS treatment expert at the World Health Organization (WHO) and one of the paper's authors. 'In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head.'

Based on data taken from South Africa and Malawi, people were voluntarily tested every year and administered with drugs straight away if they tested positive for HIV – whether they were beginning to feel ill or not. Further programmes such as safe sex education and male circumcision were also introduced.

Over a ten-year-period, HIV infections fell by 95%.

Were the strategy to be successfully rolled out across populations at high risk, the estimated number of AIDS deaths between 2008 and 2050 would be slashed by approximately half, from around 8.7 million to 3.9 million cases.

Medical experts estimate the cost of the scheme at $3.4 million per year.

Myron Cohen, of the University of North Carolina, commented: 'This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure for many countries, but that is not a reason not to think big.'

Current figures show only 3 million people are receiving AIDS drugs worldwide and almost 7 million are still waiting to be treated. WHO believes there are approximately 33 million people living with HIV in the world.

Aside from financial costs, critics have highlighted the danger of dishing out AIDS drugs to everyone who tests positive, saying this could worsen the drug's resistance.

Furthermore, the effects of taking AIDS drugs for decades is unknown and experts have questioned whether the drugs administering scheme breaches patients' rights as anyone who tests positive must begin taking medication – sick or not – possibly benefiting the community, but not necessarily the patient.

WHO stressed the new study did not mean a turning point in policy: 'This is only a theoretical exercise,' said Dr Kevin De Cook, director of WHO's HIV/AIDS department and emphasized that more meetings to develop the idea would take place next year.